Tuesday, June 02, 2009
Ponder North Korea! It is a small world after all!
North Korea, what does it mean and how do we respond? Will this be an arms race in South East Asia? A nuclear Japan? Will China get actively involved as they must? What is up with the little mad man? What is North Korea really thinking? Does what they are doing make sense? To a mad man! They are surrounded by American nuclear weapons.
Even China has warned North Korea off and that is what instigated Kim Song Il to set off the second more successful underground nuclear test. North Korea is right, there are double standard. There has to be in this case. This mad man would proliferate and use them. North Korea is incensed, they think they have been aggrieved. A sane man a responsible country would be aggrieved.
This mad man is deserved. China has a major problem and better get in front of this. China does not want North Korea attack as they would have to deal with the millions of refugees and neither do they want a unified Korea with the US on their Border. You may remember that during the Korean War General Macarthur wanted to continue through Korea and take China.
What would South East Asia be like today? What would we be like? China is our Banker as well as North Korea's immediate neighbor. They hold more than 2 trillion dollars in our Bonds.They have more at stake here than anyone. Maybe more than both Korea's. Stakes are now enormous! China has to be a key partner in whatever happens here. We can not do this unilaterally.
China does not seem to have the leverage they use to or I thought they had. They do have an abstract leverage! They should want to be key players here. They are our banker and we owe them trillions. Being North Korea's immediate neighbor they would be the recipient of hundreds of thousands of refugees if not more. Regardless of the past that is gone. We have to be concerned with the future now.
With our economic problems and North Korea's antics China is very much in the balance. As we discussed in the past, China must become key players in this and get involved for their own good. I heard yesterday that North Korea is planning another long range missile test. I will guarantee you it will be timed with the meeting to take place in South Korea in 2 weeks to decide how to react so as to throw more fuel on the fire.
After listening to Henry Kissinger with his 18 to 20 meetings in North Korea and his great insight who says North Korea may be imploding and collapsing you have to be very concerned. A collapsing Nation with an armed to the teeth 7 million man army! We have to worry about the future of South East Asia and the world.
We can not accept a nuclear mad man but we can't risk an all out war either. China is in just as bad if not a worse predicament. They are between a rock and a hard place. They either face North Korea at war and hundreds of thousands if not millions of refugees or a unified Korea with us at their door or worse both and more.
China is in a win lose situation and they better realize it and remedy this situation. They stop this and they win or they don't and they lose. Plus they do not want a scared maybe nuclear Japan. The Chinese Government must realize their situation is untenable. They must realize out interests are aligned in the absolute necessity of having a stable South East Asia.
China realizes they have a lot at stake here and must get actively involved. However I do not want to see them become our Global security partner. Nor do I see them anywhere capable of it any time soon. Russia would be nice but that is not likely to happen. The Chinese American relationship is getting more critical and tenable than ever.
We must also get Russia more deeply involved. It seems like I am saying that often these days. This is not only a new America but a new world. North Korean citizens have suffered tremendously for Kim's Cognac, electronic toys, extravagance, and nuclear program. I believe North Korea one way or the other as at the end game and getting increasingly desperate. We must all come together and act on this. We are all intertwined and interdependent. We are finding that this is a new world and it is a small world after all!