Monday, June 29, 2009
In Iran we are watching The evolution of a Civil war!
Iran continues to race towards civil war, This affects the entire world.
Iran is now hunting down protesters using the very tools they relied on to get the word out to the world as to the brutality that they were enduring under Khamenei Ahmadinejad the Basij and ultimately Iran's Revolutionary Guard. When this first started I warned those using their cell phones to transmit pictures and text depicting the atrocities that were being rained down on them. Only because it became known that in March Iran purchased the software from a Finnish German concern the software allowing them the wherewithal to track who was sending the information.
It is the same technology used by all American police departments. I know there are some who say enough of covering Iran already but I can not because this is just developing and will effect the entire world. I first saw the end of the current Theocracy brought to power after the 1979 revolution. Then I thought we were watching the birth of a Revolution, then a military coup with the IRG and the Basiji. Now I am convinced we are watching a civil war and it will affect all of us.
The Basiji are in the hospitals arresting people they injured right in the emergency room before they have the opportunity to tell the medical staff the awful truth as to what happened to them. You have to wonder what is next. Iran has done everything possible to shut down opposition leader Mir Hossein Moussavi.
Ahmadinejad shut down his newspaper closed down his website supposedly have him under house arrest and have arrested some 25 of his employees for supposed actions against the State. Anyone caught or even suspected of communicating with Moussavi is subject to arrest and they are being arrested along with everyone else they can round up. Including IRG suspected of not being totally loyal. Often their houses are raided in the middle of the night and they're taken away screaming into the night never to be heard from again.
Despite all this and much more there is an intense power struggle going on behind the scenes. Rafsanjani is still fighting to wrest control from Khamenei. Her is said to be the second richest man in Iran. He has dominated Iranian Politics for thirty years. Up to now he was said to be one of the most powerful Political leaders in Iran. I remember when Khamenei spoke at the university saying he would crush any opposition he chided Ahmadinejad for saying Rafsanjani was corrupt. He was forced to defend him as a fellow member of the 1979 Revolution and a man who loves Iran that he has known fore 50 years.
On another related note 8 British Embassy workers were arrested as they headed to work. They were arrested for inciting and aiding and abetting the election dispute protesters. Amidst all this Khamenei coming right out saying Ahmadinejad was the winner meaning they had counted 40 million hand ballots in 2 hours hurt his credibility. Every move he has made since has only served to further erode his credibility. He just came out and called for peace and calm. He will have it but not because of people listening to Khamenei but because everyone that would speak up has been killed, arrested, or otherwise frightened into submission at lest for now.
While hard line cleric Khatami calls for the heads of all those continuing to contest the election Moussavi continues his defiance despite mounting opposition. Despite the veiled threat towards him Moussavi continues to call for the election to be annulled though there is no way it will be. The movement will go underground but it will eventually erupt into a civil war.
In closing Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, the IRG, and the Basiji have to be pushing towards this while blaming it on our intervention. They believe it will be in their favor as they have all the weapons power and money or so they think. They know that always trumps the will of the people but I don't know this time. With Rafsanjani the 2nd most powerful and richest man in Iran seeking to unseat Khamenei and Moussavi continuing to insist on a revote I still do not see the will of the people being adhered to. I only see civil war and it will in one way or the other affect the entire world.