It is easy to say that with Qaddafi gone, the next vicious regime to fall is that of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. 'Tis a consummation devoutly to be wished, but realists and pessimists have rightly asked "how exactly does that happen?" It is not going to happen!
The so called experts are forgetting the most important detail the elephant in the room Iran. Iran will not allow a Democracy at their doorstep. Iran warns against outside interference and "change in Syria's government: Syria has highly-sensitive neighbors and therefore (any) change in Syria will not bring good influence to anyone and can create serious regional crisis which could spread beyond the region, said the foreign minister.
The so called experts say there are 2 possibilities. One possibility is that the army will split, largely on sectarian lines. The New York Times reports today as follows: There were reports that dozens of soldiers encouraged by the rout of Gaddafi in Libya, had deserted their positions in a village near Homs, the country's third-largest city, and also on the outskirts of the capital, Damascus, to join the popular uprising against Assad and his Baath Party. Activists said that since the uprising started in mid-March, most desertions have taken place in the eastern tribal area of Deir al-Zour, bordering Iraq; in the northwestern province of Idlib; and in towns around Homs and Damascus.
The Free Officers of Syria, a group of soldiers and officers who left the army last month in protest of the crackdown and say that they now represent defectors, published an online statement saying that "large" defections were reported in Harasta, another suburb of Damascus and that armed troops loyal to the government were chasing those defectors.
Personally I do eventually see a mass defection of conscionable Shiite officers and many minority Sunni soldiers who make up the majority of the military. I also have to wonder how long it will be before Sunni Al Qaeda and even Saudi Arabia are involved, helping the down trodden Sunni majority. You know damn well Iran is helping the Shiite minority.
Anyway the 2nd possibility they think will be the Alawite establishment military and civilian will overthrow Bashar because of the hardships put on the establishment.I absolutely believe that too will happen but there is a third that is not a possibility but a definite and as you may agree that is Iran who is already there clandestinely and will never allow Syria to fall to Democracy without a major fight. What they did to their own people was a small taste of what they will do in Syria.
Syria will be if it is not already another Proxy war: This one is or will be between the west and their Middle East allies and Syria and Iran.
George w Bush purposely did this in his infinite stupidity: I have to reiterate something I have said too many times since Bush chose to ignore all warnings of total civil war spreading throughout the entire Middle East so he could attack Iraq and straighten out the Middle East as God spoke to him and instructed him to. You know I firmly believe and have said so a million times by now that since 9/11 everything was construed to allow Bush to gain the power he needed to prosecute his new order not just in the Middle East but on the entire world! He diverted from Afghanistan to get back into the Middle East with the goal of setting up a larger safety zone for Israel and going after Iran. As expected this democratization started by Bush has taken on a life of its own.
I still see a total civil war Sunni against Shiite erupting in the Middle East because Bush freed up Iran to instigate it on their end and they are. I still am concerned we will have a permanent presence in the Middle East but feel we will have to largely leave Iraq to her own demise. We will still be there but it looks like Yemen, and the Gulf of Aden will be the prime focus unless Iran gets something going between the US and Iran.
Saddam Hussein with his lies about possessing WMD kept Iran in check. Bush freed Iran up to pursue her version of new middle East order by interfering wherever she could while Bush was doing the same thing with his Middle East Democratization program. I think you can see how successful Bush and Cheney were with their chaos creating Middle East Democracy program but you are barely seeing the results they created in Iran.
The goal absolutely is to be the country who decides which direction the new Middle East (dis)order will take. Bush started it by attacking Iraq to get into the middle east to destabilize it and start the new middle east order the idiot said God told him to do now it will be up to Iran and Saudi Arabia at least up front fight it out whether this goes the Iranian Shiite way or the Saudi Arabian Sunni way and do not forget Israel!
You know I firmly believe and have said so a million times by now that since 9/11 everything was construed to allow Bush to gain the power he needed to prosecute his new order not just in the Middle East but on the entire world! He diverted from Afghanistan to get back into the Middle East with the goal of setting up a larger safety zone for Israel and going after Iran. Both will fail! It has long been my contention that coming to Israel's aid once they attack Iran will be our in to Iran!
The entire middle east and north Africa and our more than century of interference and exploitation can take the blame for that too. Planting our military in the middle of the mess Bush has created out of the Middle East because of his failed Democratization program is going to be a Custer's Last Stand on a grand scale if we are still there when this breaks open! Looking at the war cabinet Obama has amassed I am going to say at this point that this is going to happen even under a President Obama.
Actually Russia, China and Lebanon have blocked a move for the UN Security Council to condemn Syria's crackdown on dissent. Sanctioning slaughter is more like it! I believe I remember hearing Russia weigh in against what Syria and Iran are doing but China has yet to weigh in. Any way you look at it we are playing into Iran’s hand.
You have to be very concerned about what is happening in Syria especially. Iran is not going to allow Syria to fall to Democracy,Iran is in Syria helping Bashar Assad and they do not want us interfering. What we saw after the voter fraud in Iran was mild compared to what the IRG will do if this movement spreads to Iran. I really wish Bashar would step down but Iran is the elephant in the room any way you look at it. The total Middle East breakdown we have written about numerous times is well under way. We can only hope we keep it from erupting into WW3.
James Joiner
Gardner, Ma
http://anaverageamericanpatriot.blogspot.com
5 comments:
I think you missed a few facts here Jim. The real motivation here wasn't about ideology but about food prices. Again with high unemployment and rising food prices the population is at the end of their rope. When anyone can't even afford to feed themselves that is when you see a revolt. And people in that situation are not somebody Iran will want to face.
The end result in all of the revolutions in the middle east may not be ending in democracy either. Egypt has yet to have elections and it's looking more and more like the military there is falling back to the old ways. Time will tell.
The food problem is not improving.
I don't see how the trends will change as oil production in these countries is flat or declining, while their populations grow.
A big war is coming as other players seek to take control of the oil fields. The USA will be in the thick of it, with Arabs acting as proxies for other nations.
Yeah Wease we made damn sure we would be right in the middle of it. Looks like Bush's permanent Korea style presence is going to be a reality "nightmare is more like it"
Demeur I am afraid it is coming here too. With 50 million on food stamps and R's wanting to cancel them we can't be far behind. Hell hamburger is $6 per pound.
Good to hear from you Wease I see you haven't written in a while. Hope you're working on Gods little acre there.
I've been a bit sick of it all. I haven't had the urge to write anything other than arguments...
I've been enjoy fresh cantaloupes from my garden. On a whim, I tried 'Sleeping Beauty' this year. They are doing great. Even in our moderate Texas Summers... The melons have a tendency to soften in the bottom when ripe, and the bugs quickly take advantage.
I started these in peat pots. Planted them in deep unfinished compost all along where I laid out soaker hoses. I then spread out a bail of hay to cover everything but the plants.
The 'R's won't get rid of Food Stamps. That's a ruse. They would probably reform it, so it costs more. Morgan Stanley currently has the contract to manage the Food Stamps disbursements and print the debits cards used. you can bet they aren't going to let the 'R's do anything to slow down their gravy train.
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